排序方式: 共有156条查询结果,搜索用时 31 毫秒
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分析了基于能力的维修装备体系需求分析的基本内涵,对基于能力的维修装备体系需求分析过程进行了形式化描述,提出了把分析过程划分为维修装备体系能力需求分析、装备维修活动需求分析、维修装备体系需求分析等3个阶段的思路及步骤,并对各个步骤之间的关联进行了阐述。 相似文献
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Danny M. Davis 《Defence and Peace Economics》2013,24(3):351-366
This paper is the first to demonstrate a viable prediction market that successfully forecasts defense acquisition cost and schedule outcomes, and to provide insights for defense executive decision‐making. Already used in private industry, prediction markets can also accurately forecast outcomes and their associated risks for government programs. Using virtual money, prediction markets allow traders to ‘bet’ on some future outcome. This market mechanism turns out to be a relatively simple and accurate way to discover, aggregate, and communicate to a defense executive the collective market’s beliefs about the likelihood of an eventual outcome of an acquisition program of interest. 相似文献
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Philip G. Pugh 《Defence and Peace Economics》2013,24(1):25-37
This paper, intended to stimulate debate, suggests that we are at a turning point in the history of the UK military aerospace industry. It argues that there is urgent need for a fresh vision as to how the UK military aerospace industry can both prosper and make its maximum contribution to the defence of Britain. Further, the resulting plans and policies must emphasise the robustness of defence capabilities in a future in which the only thing we can be certain is that it will be very different from the present – especially whenever defence most matters. 相似文献
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Demand forecasting performance is subject to the uncertainty underlying the time series an organization is dealing with. There are many approaches that may be used to reduce uncertainty and thus to improve forecasting performance. One intuitively appealing such approach is to aggregate demand in lower‐frequency “time buckets.” The approach under concern is termed to as temporal aggregation, and in this article, we investigate its impact on forecasting performance. We assume that the nonaggregated demand follows either a moving average process of order one or a first‐order autoregressive process and a single exponential smoothing (SES) procedure is used to forecast demand. These demand processes are often encountered in practice and SES is one of the standard estimators used in industry. Theoretical mean‐squared error expressions are derived for the aggregated and nonaggregated demand to contrast the relevant forecasting performances. The theoretical analysis is supported by an extensive numerical investigation and experimentation with an empirical dataset. The results indicate that performance improvements achieved through the aggregation approach are a function of the aggregation level, the smoothing constant, and the process parameters. Valuable insights are offered to practitioners and the article closes with an agenda for further research in this area. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 60: 479–498, 2013 相似文献
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在对备件需求时间序列研究的基础上,结合指数平滑法和Croston法的特点,分析了指数平滑法与两步法的原理,通过对指数平滑法和两步法方差的研究,得到两步法是指数平滑法的一般形式的结论,为两步法的进一步研究提供一定的理论支撑。 相似文献
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提出了两步选址法:应用需求势能理论并基于维修需求和路程两项主要指标构建装备抢修分队选址模型。计算得到次优选址区域后,从中选出若干备选点,再用模糊综合评判法确定符合实际的最佳选址点。实例分析表明:两步选址法具有一定的有效性和实用性。 相似文献
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游光荣 《装甲兵工程学院学报》2007,21(1):1-8
通过对我军武器装备建设历程的回顾,结合学习毛泽东军事思想和邓小平、江泽民国防和军队建设思想,深入学习贯彻科学发展观以及胡锦涛同志关于武器装备建设的重要指示,系统总结武器装备建设的阶段性特点,对新世纪新阶段我军武器装备建设基本规律进行了新的归纳和总结。 相似文献
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